A Building-Sized Asteroid Approaches
Astronomers have been watching an asteroid, 2024 YR4, that has the potential to be catastrophically damaging. Discovered in December of 2024, it was earlier termed a “city-killer,” primarily due to its size and the potential of its impact.
According to the latest assessment from NASA, 2024 YR4 is between 174 feet to 220 feet (53-67 meters) across, a typical size for a structure of around 10 stories tall. Fears were mounting, early on, that the asteroid might strike Earth in 2032, doubts that have substantially eased, with astronomers placing the risk at far less than even 1%.
Is Earth in danger?
The first round of calculations showed an impact risk for asteroid 2024 YR4 during December 2032 of 3.1%. The possibilities of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth have since been discounted by NASA.
“Keeping eyes on 2024 YR4 so that astronomers can get all the data they can before it goes out of sight in mid-April,” said Kelly Fast of NASA, who serves as the planetary defense officer.
Rather than Earth, there is now a 3.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon in 2032. If that were to happen, there is an assurance from scientists that no significant effect would be felt on Earth.
How Was It Discovered?
Observing astronomers of the University of Hawaii’s ATLAS telescope proved fruitful on December 27 of the year 2024-the date when 2024 YR4 was first detected. Its peculiar orbit has taken it far outside the orbits of Mars and Jupiter, only to bring it back into the vicinity of Earth once again.
Because of its unusual path, 2024 YR4 had previously gone unnoticed in past flybys. As technology improves, astronomers expect to uncover more asteroids like it.
What If It Did Hit Earth?
NASA has called 2024 YR4 a “city-killer” based on sheer size. The impact from it could virtually result in the obliteration of a modern city, very much like Tunguska 1908’s impact in Siberia, where it wiped out a forest of some 2,000 sq km.
Tracking Future Risks
Though it will not hit Earth in 2032, astronomers are still watching 2024 YR4 to check its course. NASA’s Davide Farnocchia said, “It has a 1.1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2047.”
While that seems a small chance of occurrence, every potential threat is treated seriously by space agecies. Future observations will help clarify its path.
Why Observing Asteroids Matters
The James Webb Space Telescope, an instrument from NASA, had recently captured images of 2024 YR4 for investigating better its composition. It is this particular insight that helps scientists in forecasting the behavior and risks of asteroids.
In a quotation from an asteroid expert, Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University, “As sensitive new asteroid search programs come online, we expect to see even more potentially hazardous asteroids”. For more details on how NASA tracks these asteroids, you can visit. The NASA article explained.
Should We Be Worried?
Right now, however, the threat is nonexistent. NASA announces that 2024 YR4 will miss the Earth in 2032, although astronomers will keep on tracking its long-term path.
The discovery of 2024 YR4 makes clear how vital planetary defense is. Such efforts to detect and deflect looming threats blur lines, marking companies such as Tech Innovations LLC as part of the collective step to advance technologies that are focused on discovering such risks and possibly mitigating them. Read more about their innovations at: Tech Innovations LLC.
Final Thoughts
Whereas 2024 YR4 proves something of an enigma when speaking of the unpredictability of space, current data indicate that Earth is still safe. The asteroid will soon become invisible until 2028, when astronomers will resume tracking it.
For now, the “city-killer” is just an interesting piece of rock in space passing by Earth.
