In a recent commentary on X (formerly Twitter), Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund, identified what he believes could be the next significant catalyst for Tesla stock. According to Black, the pivotal event driving major upside is the removal of safety monitors from Tesla’s robotaxi fleet.
Currently, Tesla operates roughly 150 robotaxis in locations like Austin, Texas and the San Francisco Bay Area, all equipped with safety drivers or monitoring systems. Black argues that once these monitors are removed, signaling full autonomous deployment, Tesla could enter a phase of exponential growth, excitement, and investor confidence.
Why Safety Monitors Are a Key Hurdle
Safety monitors, whether human drivers or supervising systems, represent both a practical and symbolic barrier to Tesla’s autonomy ambitions. Black’s perspective emphasizes:
- Removing monitors demonstrates Tesla’s confidence in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi capabilities.
- This milestone marks the shift from pilot programs to commercial-scale operations, a key metric for investors.
Black also highlighted technical signals supporting Tesla’s readiness:
- FSD 14 Update: Rolled out in October, it improved reliability, with nearly 4,000 miles between critical driver interventions — roughly 10x better than FSD 13.
- Robotaxi Expansion: Tesla currently operates in Austin and the Bay Area, with plans to expand to Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Miami.
These factors form the foundation of Black’s claim: remove the safety monitors, demonstrate credible autonomous performance, and it’s “game-on” for Tesla’s stock.
Implications for Tesla Stock and Investors
Upside Potential
A monitor-free robotaxi fleet could unlock a new business model: mobility-as-a-service (MaaS), beyond traditional vehicle sales. This could dramatically expand Tesla’s total addressable market, justifying higher stock multiples. According to Black, this milestone could shift Tesla from being “just an EV company” to a full autonomous mobility platform — the next major valuation driver.
Risks and Timing
However, the path to autonomy isn’t without challenges:
- Investors may overestimate rollout timelines.
- Chinese competitors could erode Tesla’s lead.
- Regulatory, safety, and execution risks could delay monitor removal or scale.
Tesla’s stock has already rallied significantly in 2025, so much of the “robotaxi promise” may already be reflected in current valuations. Black’s analysis provides a concrete Tesla robotaxi catalyst for investors to watch.
The Takeaway for Investors
Gary Black frames the next major upside for Tesla not in terms of car deliveries or margin improvements, but in a symbolic operational milestone: the removal of monitors from the robotaxi fleet.
When that occurs, Tesla transitions from pilot autonomous operations to robotaxi scale, a shift likely to influence both its valuation and business narrative. For long-term investors, this provides a tangible event to monitor — a clear milestone that could mark the next growth phase for Tesla.
